End Plastic Pollution

Our Impact

We are building on significant momentum following the 2024 release of Schmidt DSE’s open source AI tools in support of the global effort to end plastic pollution: the Global Plastics AI Policy Tool and an interactive simulation. Together, these models predict the global production, use, and fate of plastics through 2050. We published our findings in Science at the end of 2024. Our research revealed an unprecedented opportunity to reduce global plastic pollution by 91%. We worked collaboratively with stakeholders to ensure our research and models are useful to policymakers throughout the treaty negotiations process.
 

Over the last year, DSE personally briefed global and national delegations with our findings throughout the treaty negotiations process. Faculty Co-Director Douglas McCauley was featured on a Newsweek panel, where he shared the opportunity and impact potential of roadmaps surfaced by the tool at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos in January. Similarly, McCauley socialized the value of the tool at a convening of global ministers during New York Climate Week regarding how global leaders are coming together to help solve plastics pollution.

Future Vision

Although negotiations have not been finalized on the expected timeline, we have been heartened to see 100+ countries rally behind a treaty draft that includes many of the provisions to end plastic pollution that surfaced in our research. We are closely watching ongoing negotiations with the aim of supporting a high-ambition treaty, and our software remains relevant to this strategy. 
 

Background on DSE's Research

Decision-makers have been working together since 2022 to address what the United Nations calls “a serious environmental problem at a global scale.” Ultimately, leaders are working to create the first-ever international legally binding treaty on plastic pollution. DSE and academic leaders in plastic pollution and our partners at the Benioff Ocean Science Lab developed a cutting-edge model that predicts the global production, use, and fate of plastics through 2050. We worked collaboratively with stakeholders to ensure our research and models are accessible and useful to policymakers throughout the treaty negotiations process. 

Key Findings

• In collaboration with other domain area experts in the global plastics system, DSE created a model and built an interactive data tool that allows UN negotiators to visualize the impact that candidate Treaty policies would have on ending plastic waste.
• Our model analyzes the impact of eight specific policy interventions on plastic waste and greenhouse gas emissions, both individually and when combined.
• The model reveals that a package of four key policies—working together across the entire plastic life cycle—could nearly end plastic pollution by 2050. 

See still images of our data visualization below that forecast a future if no action is taken to reduce plastic pollution, and a future if a high-ambition treaty is implemented. 

Image If no action is taken, the annual plastic pollution generated in 2050 would be nearly double - growing to 121 million metric tons

Image Under a high ambition treaty, the annual plastic pollution generated in 2050 could be cut by more than 90% - dropping down to 10.8 million metric tons.

DSE's findings reveal that a package of four key policies—working together across the entire plastic lifecycle—could nearly end plastic pollution. By 2050 this policy package would reduce mismanaged plastic waste by up to 91% and cut associated greenhouse gasses by one third. In November 2024 we published a paper in Science with these findings: Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. 

The model we built and delivered to delegations also enables policy makers to examine endless combinations of policies at different levels to inform their negotiation positions. Our interactive tool, The Global Plastics AI Policy Tool, provides an evidence-based, AI-powered projection of the future under various policy scenarios. See a screenshot below and at https://global-plastics-tool.org. Open source data is available at https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype. 

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Throughout the global treaty negotiation process we provided our recommendations to national delegations and White House officials. We have been inspired see 100+ countries rally behind a treaty draft that includes many of the solutions that surfaced in our research. To date our research has been featured in over 600 US and international news outlets including the Associated Press, ABC7, The Guardian, The New York Times, Newsweek, NPR, Time, and the Washington Post.